The Simulation – Rugby Leagues International Tournaments – Year 1.

By Daniel Andruczyk

Back in October and November I set out a four part series of blogs that outlined my views on how to fix International Rugby League (Read them here). One of the points I made that Rugby League needs a structured four year cycle of tournaments that allows teams to participate and have a chance of sitting at the table with the big boys. This weeks blogs I have done a simulation to create scores and show how this would work.

Background

There are several assumptions I have made in this simulation to try and show how this would work.

  1. The teams starting off are roughly ranked to where they are now. I may have missed out some teams not because I dont want them there but because I forgot them Sorry to any nations I missed out on.
  2. I am assuming that in any given match the teams are on an equal footing and its purely down to the roll of the dice – a random number generator in effect.
  3. I will work through each of the tournaments on a year by year basis and try to explain as thoroughly as possible what is happening.
  4. This will be a longish blog so apologies from the outset but hopefully the tables will do a good summary of it.

Pacific Cup Qualifiers

The nations I have included in the Pacific Nations Cup (PNC) are: Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Cook Islands, Fiji, Samoa, Tonga, Niue, Tokelau and Solomon Island.

The PNC consists of two qualifier stages and one finals stage. In the first qualifier stage the bottom 4 teams play each other to decide the top two to progress through to the next round. Results are: Solomon Is 43-32 Tokelau, Tonga 24-54 Niue, Solomon Is 45-30 Niue, Tonga 12-25 Tokelau, Tonga 23-21 Solomon Is, Niue 25-24 Tokelau.

Qualifiers 1 P W D L B PD PT
Solomon Island 3 2 0 1 0 24 4
Tonga 3 2 0 1 0 19 4
Tokelau 3 1 0 2 0 1 2
Niue 3 1 0 2 0 -44 2

So from this the Solomon Islands and Tonga would progress to the next stage which sees them come up against the next two best teams in Fiji and Samoa. Results are: Samoa 20-22 Fiji, Solomon Is 29-15 Tonga, Samoa 19-40 Solomon Islands, Fiji 20-34 Tonga, Tonga 28-18 Samoa, Solomon Is 25-28 Fiji

Qualifiers 2 P W D L B PD PT
Solomon Island 3 2 0 1 0 32 4
Tonga 3 2 0 1 0 10 4
Fiji 3 2 0 1 0 -9 4
Samoa 3 0 0 3 0 -33 0

So once again the Tongans and Solomon Islanders show their worth to come through the qualifiers and in the next year play against the top 4 teams.

European Cup Qualifiers

A similar story is done for the European Nations, but with many more countries obviously there are many more groups. The nations involved are: England, France, Wales, Scotland, Lebanon, Ireland, Italy, Serbia, Russia, Germany, Czech Rep., Ukraine, Latvia, Estonia, Morocco, Catalonia, Belgium, Greece, Malta, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, UAE, Portugal. In the first round of qualifiers there are two groups. Results are: (Group 1) Belgium 32-32 Malta, Sweden 15-32 Denmark, Belgium 16-34 Sweden, Malta 30-26 Denmark, Denmark 35-18 Belgium, Malta 14-10 Sweden, (Group 2) Greece 21-23 Portugal, UAE 18-23 Norway, Norway 29-35 Greece, Portugal 19-34 UAE, Greece 15-13 UAE, Norway 30-23 Portugal

Qualifiers 1 P W D L B PD PT
Malta 3 2 1 0 0 8 5
Denmark 3 2 0 1 0 30 4
Sweden 3 1 0 2 0 -3 2
Belgium 3 0 1 2 0 -35 1
Qualifiers 1 P W D L B PD PT
Greece 3 2 0 1 0 6 4
Norway 3 2 0 1 0 6 4
UAE 3 1 0 2 0 8 2
Portugal 3 1 0 2 0 -20 2

Thus Malta, Denmark, Greece and Norway go through to the next round of the qualifiers for the Regional Championship. Here they will face the next 12 best teams split through 4 groups where the winner of each group will then go into the finals to be played the next year. Results are: (Group A) Lebanon 34 18 Russia, Malta 31-32 Latvia, Latvia 15-21 Lebanon, Russia 16-29 Latvia, Lebanon 12-17 Malta, Russia 30-17 Malta, (Group B) Ireland 17-39 Germany, Estonia 32-27 Greece, Estonia 19-12 Ireland, Germany 16-10 Estonia, Ireland 19-40 Greece, Greece 18-32 Germany, (Group C) Italy 29-26 Czech, Denmark 22-21 Morocco, Morocco 23-35 Italy, Czech 16-38 Morocco, Italy 16-40 Denmark, Denmark 33-22 Czech, (Group D) Serbia 37-19 Ukraine, Catalonia 35-20 Norway, Catalonia 39-11 Serbia, Ukraine 32-27 Catalonia, Serbia 12-20 Norway, Norway 33-27 Ukraine.

Qualifiers 2 P W D L B PD PT
Lebanon 3 2 0 1 0 17 4
Latvia 3 2 0 1 0 8 4
Malta 3 1 0 2 0 -9 2
Russia 3 1 0 2 0 -16 2
Qualifiers 2 P W D L B PD PT
Germany 3 3 0 0 0 42 6
Estonia 3 2 0 1 0 6 4
Greece 3 1 0 2 0 12 2
Ireland 3 0 0 3 0 -50 0
Qualifiers 2 P W D L B PD PT
Denmark 3 3 0 0 0 36 6
Italy 3 2 0 1 0 -9 4
Morocco 3 1 0 2 0 9 2
Czech Republic 3 0 0 3 0 -36 0
Qualifiers 2 P W D L B PD PT
Catalonia 3 2 0 1 0 33 4
Norway 3 2 0 1 0 -1 4
Serbia 3 1 0 2 0 -13 2
Ukraine 3 1 0 2 0 -14 2

From these qualifiers we see that Lebanon, Germany, Denmark and Catalonia all progress through to the finals of the European Cup in the next year

Atlantic Nations Cup

Due to the small number of nations in this group there are no qualifiers as such and a Finals is played in year two.

Tours

Since the Finals are not till the next year then the top 4 teams in each region, Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Cook Islands, England, France, Wales and Scotland can all do tours as they please. They will face the winners of the qualifiers in year two.

In the next blog I will have Year two of the simulation.

Daniel Andruczyk’s email: info@rugbyleagueinternationalscores.com
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